We have entered retail results season here in the UK, and some of the big names have unveiled extremely healthy annual numbers over the past week – especially multiple retailers with a strong food element to their business. Tesco shares have jumped after it announced that last year’s sales rose 7% to £61.48b, and the retailer struck a confident, bullish tone in its reporting notes. Elsewhere, Home Bargains revealed that turnover increased 10.2% from £3.4bn to £3.7bn in the year to 30th June, while pre-tax profits rose 12.4%, up from £293m in 2022 to £332m. Thanks to the increase in sales and profits, the owners – the Morris family – will share dividends totalling £36m, up from £30.5m last year. TJ Morris also stated that the number of Home Bargains retail outlets is set to increase in the year ahead. The company currently operates 594 stores but its aiming to open between 800 and 1,000 retail outlets, which it expects to lead to further growth in turnover and profitability. Nice work.

However, there was a slight sting in the tail: over 2,000 jobs were lost at Home Bargains over the last financial year, as overall staff levels were reduced from 28,401 to 26,845. Now, I must confess to not being overly familiar with staffing and service levels at Home Bargains, living in an area not yet penetrated by the retailer (given there were several large Wilko stores close by before the chain closed, maybe this is one of the areas in which it is looking to expand its store estate?) – but one has to hope that as retail starts to pick up again, it will strive to get the right balance between profit for the owners and staffing levels.

One thing which might help all retailers – large and small, food and non-food – is a reform of business rates system. The Labour Party announced this week that if it wins the next election, it will “fix” the business rates system, replacing it with a new, fairer system of business property taxation with the aim of “rebalancing the burden and levelling the playing field.” The aspiration is sound: the devil, of course, is in the detail. What are the mechanics of the proposal? And how quickly can the current system be overhauled or replaced? Some of us are old enough to remember the Poll Tax being described in a similar way, and we all know how that turned out (although I’m not sure we’ll see retailers rioting in quite the same way).

Naturally, this is all completely dependent on Labour winning an election – not by any means a foregone conclusion, despite the current government’s continuing nightmare in the polls – and how long we have to wait for that election in the first place. But if we do somehow end up with a system that is in Labour’s words “fit for the 21st century”, it will be an important step in revitalising Hight Streets the length and breadth of the UK and Ireland. Retail is not just one of the country’s largest sources of employment, but it is at the very heart of the health of town centres; the rundown state of many small, provincial towns has been greatly exacerbated by the challenges that retailers have faced. I am sure we’ve all visited towns that have changed beyond recognition in the past decade or so.

The UK is not alone in that respect – we’ve seen upheaval in the Spanish toy retail market in recent weeks, with the closure of the already depleted Imaginarium chain and the uncertainty surrounding the future of the Poly Group. And while I appreciate I am sounding a bit like a pound shop Mary Portas, I do want to see brick and mortar retail thrive, and high streets becoming a pleasurable place to visit again. How we reconcile that with a modern digital economy where many of the large platforms and online sellers are based outside the UK for tax purposes, and therefore are arguably not contributing their fair share or subject to a level playing field is a conundrum for far greater economic minds than mine. But I do hope we find ourselves with a government – of whatever stripe – which is prepared to tackle this head on. Retailers are a resourceful bunch, and I still feel the “nation of shopkeepers” expression is one we should wear with pride. But if we still want to lay claim to that, we have to start by addressing the elephant in the room – the balance of burden between physical and digital retail. Coming up in our May issue, we spoke to many toy suppliers who were quick to champion the indie sector in helping drive their businesses, showing just how vital it is to our High Streets.

I love the fact that one of our most read stories of the past week was about the social gathering of a group of Scottish toy trade reps and agents which took place in Glasgow last week. It’s a lovely idea, and one that maybe some of their UK and Ireland counterparts may decide to replicate. And it shows the warmth and camaraderie that these people built up over the years. Wouldn’t it be great to think there will be gatherings like that in ten or twenty years’ time? That will be totally dependent on what happens to retail in the coming years – I’m not sure I can see the people who punch numbers into algorithms ever deciding to get together to swap stories and reminisce about the time something funny happened in the course of their daily travails.

I don’t know if it still exists in some form, but there used to be a clandestine toy trade group called “The Toy Soldiers”, which basically consisted of a the leading sales directors from major toy companies, who would get together ‘informally’ to chew the cud and discuss the hot topics of the day that affected the UK toy market, and what could be done to address some of the challenges (and yes, that is called a cartel these days, but those were simpler times). If the idea was ever to be resurrected, I guess it would need a new name – perhaps the Cyber Warriors would be more applicable in the 21st century?

I hope you all had a wonderful Easter – whether you were relaxing at home after a whirlwind first quarter or working hard in-store. Thankfully, it looks like High Street footfall was significantly up over the Easter weekend. I went into our local town centre on Saturday, and it was absolutely heaving – comfortably the busiest trading day since the week before Christmas. Posts from retailers on LinkedIn suggest a similar pattern across the UK. Of course, it was payday for most people just before Easter, which undoubtedly helped; I think we may see that ‘payday bounce’ (and perhaps a subsequent tailing off as the month progresses) become a more regular occurrence this year. Financial pressures are arguably easing (albeit slowly and slightly), but I suspect the average family still has to juggle expenditure from one payday to the next.

Suppliers will also be heartened by the gradual improvement in freight rates. There were genuine concerns at the turn of the year that the Red Sea shenanigans would have a long-lasting impact, but rates continue to fall, especially if shipments aren’t urgent. Those prepared to accept slower sailing times can take advantage of better prices, which may help some companies in the next few months. We will just have to hope that everything is resolved before the more time-sensitive fourth quarter, when the delayed arrival of products can be infinitely more problematic for both suppliers and retailers.

Meanwhile, as this year slowly shifts into gear, spring summer previews for 2025 are already underway out in LA, and the next few weeks will see an increasing number of suppliers and retailers heading to California to start planning for next year. I gather that only a handful of UK retailers will be making the trip this month, although a far larger contingent is expected in September. However, a degree of confusion still reigns – last week alone, I was contacted by three separate UK retailers asking questions about the September LA trip.

For some reason, they seem to think I’m the man ‘in the know’. If only. For what it’s worth, my sources suggest that the main ‘UK retail’ week looks likely to be 16th-20th September. That said, one very large toy company with its offices in El Segundo appears to be asking UK retailers to come the following week, 23rd-27th. Not only does this potentially prolong the trip for the buyers – who presumably want their visit to be as time and cost-efficient as possible, and two weeks in LA constitutes neither – but that second week also clashes with BLE in London. So, if what I have been told is true, and the company in question doesn’t reconsider its timelines, some buyers will have a big choice to make.

The whole situation does highlight the difference between a properly organised, fixed-timeline three or four-day trade show, and a loose arrangement between a bunch of companies all doing their own thing. There’s not even a central resource to tell retailers which companies are going to be there and when they are around (the entire LA trip lasts from the middle of August to the beginning of October). We did try to engage with some of the building owners to see if it would be feasible to pull something together, but they seem happy to put the onus on the retailers to do their own research, rather than helping to make their life a bit easier. Their philosophy seems to be “If we build it, they will come.” Which, on one level, is perfectly fair and reasonable. But listening to buyers, many feel they have made ‘schoolboy errors’ in the past which cost them time and money, and they would love a bit more clarity and information to help them maximise their trip. Our Toy and Licensing Show preview issues have always been invaluable resources in helping visitors make the most of those shows – maybe in the fullness of time we’ll work out a way to support those people making the trip to LA too. I would just caveat that by saying The Toy Association is doing its best to make the LA trip a bit more efficient for US toy companies and retailers, and hopefully that will be a good step in the right direction.

It will also be interesting to assess what impact the rise of LA is having on other events. There is no doubt that there were fewer visitors to Hong Kong in January, especially from the US market, while the October Hong Kong trip has now all but disappeared from the calendar, except for a few vendor / factory trips by suppliers. Next month’s Distoy event is another that has perhaps been caught in the crossfire: it is impossible to tell in advance of any event who will show up (several people made a point of publicly proclaiming they wouldn’t be going to Distoy last year, then showed up unannounced), but there is a general feeling that the show may be slightly more focused this year.

That, in itself, is fine – I will continue to beat the ‘quality not quantity’ drum when it comes to shows. But I have heard of a few people who appear to have decided not to take a showroom at the hotels, but just to turn up and hold meetings in the lobby or the bar. Now, naturally, there is nothing to physically stop them from doing that. But if everyone did the same thing, the show wouldn’t happen…and then it’s just a bunch of people sitting around in a hotel lobby, which would be a bit weird. Just because you can do something, it doesn’t mean you should.

The Toy World team will be at Distoy (not LA though), so if you are planning to be in London and want to catch up to explore opportunities in Toy World for the second half of the year, feel free to drop us a line. In the meantime, the April issue of Toy World landed on desks this week, and you can read the digital issue online now. Coincidentally, our competitors’ magazines also came out this week (one and a half competitors, as we like to refer to them): when we all publish an issue in the same week, it provides a very straightforward comparison for readers and advertisers. And if you have made that comparison, I doubt it will be too difficult to decide who you should be working with over the coming months. No confusion there at all.

Easter is one of the more unusual annual holidays. It moves around the calendar, to the extent that no-one is ever sure when it falls from one year to the next. I also recently found out that different countries have different approaches to Easter when it comes to how much time and which days off work people have. Here in the UK, those of us who don’t work at retail have a day off on both Friday and Monday to look forward to, so the Blog is coming to you a day early this week.

This year’s Easter is an early one, which is not generally the preferred option for most toy retailers. While Easter is seen as a good opportunity to boost toy sales, that arguably tends to work better when it falls later in April, especially here in the UK, by which time the weather may be markedly different (I have a memory of visiting the seaside one Easter in my early twenties and getting badly sunburned – I doubt many will suffer that fate this year).

An early Easter also plays havoc with like-for-like sales comparisons over March and April. But it is what it is, and right now, anything that can help to provide some impetus and stimulate retail sales will be welcome. Like me, I am sure you have seen LinkedIn posts from prominent indie retailers like Dave Middleton here in the UK and Rick Derr over in the US, suggesting that footfall has been disappointing in March (I tend to hum Ghost Town in my head when I see pictures of deserted shopping centres.…). Hopefully the Easter holidays will see consumers getting back out into stores, especially if the weather is patchy (sorry seaside-based retailers, I fear you may have to wait a few more weeks for traffic to pick up).

For those of you who were quick off the mark and read last week’s Blog as soon as it was posted online, you might want to go back and re-read it, as I did something I rarely do – I made some significant tweaks to it after a conversation with Pablo Merino, Country director at Poly Juguetes, who called me after reading the initial Blog. Pablo was keen to point out that contrary to media reports and quotes which suggested that Poly was ‘inviable’, he firmly believes that is not the case. Indeed, the stores all remain open at present, and Poly is in conversation with potential new shareholders to replace The Entertainer and take the business forward. In the light of our conversation, I thought it was important to clarify the situation. With the economy improving in Spain (it has apparently been a decent start to the year), Pablo believes that “subject to the incorporation of commercial levers hitherto not allowed by the current ownership”, Poly has a future. For the sake of the 180 or so employees, I very much hope that is the case – I have never made any secret of the fact that I believe a strong specialist, independent channel is vital for the health of the toy community right across the globe.

I was reminded of the extent to which indies can punch above their weight on a visit to Toymaster head office this week, where we caught up with Yogi, Paul and the team to hear how preparations are going for the May Show. You’ll be able to read more in our May issue, which will land on desks at the start of May, three weeks before the show opens. But the good news is that having outperformed the market in 2023, the first two months of the year have seen a good portion of Toymaster members trading up on last year.

The Northampton office has been completely transformed since our last visit – the team now works upstairs, while the ground floor has been turned into a multi-functional space where committee and selection meetings can be hosted, vlogs can be shot by suppliers (under the watchful eye of the toy industry’s latest mega-influencer, Paul Reader), window banners and promotional material can be displayed, and in-store shelf layouts can be tinkered with.

The space is not only a fantastic resource for Toymaster and its members, but it is also now going to be offered to suppliers who are looking for a centrally-located facility to host sales meetings or other company get-togethers – and it certainly beats the local Premier Inn any day!

Keep a look out for Toy World’s dedicated Toymaster supplement in May, where there will be a lot more news on what’s been happening at Toymaster (including a potential change to next year’s regional meetings) – and if you are one of the few exhibitors at the May event which hasn’t booked an ad in our inaugural standalone Toymaster supplement, there is still time (just…).

The same goes for the extended Licensing World section in the main May issue – we’ll be previewing Vegas, looking at the latest Hot Properties which licensees and retailers in the kids & family space should be considering, and rounding up all the latest character merchandise launches that will be hitting shelves in the coming months. Whether you’re a licensor / licensing agent or a licensee, there’s a section for you to showcase your latest properties / ranges. And it will be on desks three weeks before Vegas, which is important because – your regular reminder – nobody has time to actually read anything at a show (not if they’re doing it right).

Tonight, I am off to London for a media Q&A session with Alan Shearer, being hosted by Topps to promote its new Euro 2024 sticker collection. I have suggested a couple of questions for Alan to answer – I just hope Gareth Southgate isn’t there.

Whether you’re in-store selling toys, waiting at home to analyse the results or just sitting around scoffing your bodyweight in chocolate, have a fantastic Easter – the Blog will be back in its traditional Friday timeslot next week.

As UK retail continues to gently tick over as we head towards Easter (and I appreciate it might be said that I am being quite generous there), the biggest toy retail story of the week comes from Spain, where the specialist toy retail chain Poly Juguetes has sadly started the liquidation process. All stores currently remain open, in the hope of finding a new buyer to take the business forward. The Poly Group was, of course, acquired by The Teal Group – parent company of The Entertainer – in 2018, as part of its ambitious global expansion plans. Sadly, things didn’t work out according to plan.

I certainly don’t profess to be an expert on the Spanish toy market. I have a working knowledge of some of its foibles – but I am not immersed in it in the same way I am in the UK toy community. So full disclosure, what follows is heavily based on comments that have been made to me, which may or may not represent the full picture (there are always two sides to every story) – so please accept them in the spirit of ‘some might say’…

I do know from previous conversations with key people at The Entertainer that there have been some challenges with the Poly operation and the Spanish market in general, beyond what they had envisaged when they bought into the business. The Spanish toy community is perceived to be very close-knit and quite traditional. In some cases, people and companies have worked a certain way for decades.

The language barrier was another issue – I was once told that there were only a handful of employees in the Spanish head office who spoke English well enough to accompany the Entertainer team on store visits and to contribute effectively to internal meetings (although equally, how many Spanish speakers are employed in Amersham?). There were rumours of employees unhappy with being asked to change the way they worked overnight, and even darker rumours of a small number who may have been using their positions for personal financial gain for years before the takeover. There were also rumblings of discontent amongst the Spanish vendor community about the change in trading terms and buying strategies.

The Entertainer certainly isn’t the first – and won’t be the last – organisation to encounter local cultural barriers, and to experience challenges introducing its own work culture to a business that is run differently. Indeed, there were whispers suggesting that Smyths had a few hiccups when it first attempted to integrate Toys R Us GAS into its operation, but I understand those issues were resolved and the two businesses are now working well together.

The Entertainer appears to have faced a level of challenges that ultimately proved insurmountable. However, the retailer has faced challenges in the UK market in recent years and overcome them. So, what was different about Spain? Here I am relaying some of the comments I received after we broke the story earlier this week. One person wrote: “The first thing a multinational should do when buying a company from Spain is to look for a management team that knows the business or Spanish retail in general, and to define a joint strategy together, listening to people who know the territory. Instead, they wanted to “impose” all commercial policies – especially purchases, conditions, assortment, margins – without taking into account how Spanish retail worked, or the opinions of suppliers and local employees. That made it very difficult for local operations to work. We live in a global world, but there are basic issues that need to be put into practice.”

One supplier was more specific: “The Entertainer management stuck to their margin requirements. Spanish toy companies closed ranks and wouldn’t play ball, so they ended up getting most of their stock from UK suppliers.”

Another wrote: “The Entertainer introduced its company policy of not opening on Sundays to Poly, a chain of toy stores whose most successful stores were located in commercial centres. The lease terms of these stores were seven day/week opening. Poly was forced to pay fines for every Sunday the stores were closed and then was eventually forced to close its most profitable stores when the leases were up for renewal. as the landlords understandably would not renew.”

Feelings are clearly running high in the Spanish toy community. I cannot say whether these comments are accurate representations of what happened – and indeed we may never know the full story (people love to talk about their successes, but are often understandably reluctant to openly dissect when something doesn’t go to plan). But clearly there is a perception within the Spanish market that these factors contributed to The Entertainer deciding to cut its ties with Poly.

Arguably, these observations have even greater prescience following The Entertainer’s deal to introduce outlets into Tesco stores here in the UK. The debate about assortment and (particularly) margin for the new arrangement has been the most talked-about topic across the UK toy community since the news broke. As a direct consequence of margin requirements, the barring of certain product lines from being stocked by the Spanish stores and the lack of vendor co-operation, did the product mix in Poly stores ultimately appeal to Spanish consumers? Similarly, will the mix in The Entertainer’s Tesco outlets – likely to be markedly different to the previous toy aisles – appeal to Tesco shoppers? In the case of the latter question, we don’t have long to wait now to find out.

Indeed, it may well be the Tesco deal that brought the whole Poly situation to a head: in terms of time and capital, The Entertainer has an immense project on its hands, and maybe has decided it needs to focus all its resources on this new arrangement to make sure it delivers.

I received a lot of feedback to last week’s Blog, which looked at some of the ways the toy market has changed in recent years. It is perhaps no great surprise that many toy suppliers don’t want things to change – they were doing fine as they were. One said to me last week: “Oh for the days of actual volume commitments, selections from experienced toy hands, bulk deliveries into customer’s DC’s etc. Now everything is a ‘drop ship’ and/or a stick it online approach, rather than getting behind good innovative product. And don’t get me started on own brand development…”

There are clearly concerns amongst toy suppliers over the whole The Entertainer / Tesco arrangement, especially amongst companies which have historically traded well with the grocer. However, Gary Grant is one of the most astute businessmen I have ever met, and he has built a formidable team around him. All business owners, no matter how successful, face setbacks from time to time. It is how they respond to missteps which counts, and personally I would never underestimate The Entertainer’s ability to bounce back from a blip like this. And let’s hope the Poly Group is successful in finding a new owner, so that stores can stay open and the staff keep their jobs.

Anyone with a passing interest in horse racing will be aware that this was Cheltenham week – although not a massive fan myself, I have very fond memories of the festival from the days of being a guest of GMTV. I also remember walking around Cheltenham in just short sleeves on several occasions, so the weather is a little late in turning this year.

Those were great days to be working with GMTV. In addition to lovely long lunches (where beer and wine may have been taken), we played football matches at Premier League grounds (ironic that I played on far more top-class pitches after I had given up playing than I ever managed when I was in my prime) and they threw the best parties in New York and Hong Kong. The New York events in particular were legendary – US toy executives looked on with envy as 100 or so Brits were picked up by stretch limos from the toy building and whisked off to mystery destinations like Carnegie Hall to be entertained and plied with copious quantities of food and drink.

GMTV had a sizeable marketing budget and by golly they were determined to spend it. What a contrast with today: many of the big TV channels, streaming platforms and entertainment giants appear to be in the grip of over-zealous bean counters, and have developed ‘short arms, long pockets’ syndrome (in some cases, the arms are so short they resemble a particularly challenged Tyrannosaurus Rex). This reluctance to spend especially manifests itself at a trade level. Securing trade marketing spend can be like pulling teeth (whereas GMTV used to claim their annual trade ad spend back on their expenses, as they considered it too trivial to bother putting it through the system). Many don’t exhibit properly at trade shows. Launch events, parties and other opportunities to entertain clients are a rarity. Even lunches (proper lunches I mean) are few and far between. Just like Amazon at a supplier level, the new media and licensing giants don’t seem quite as interested in forging close personal bonds with their trade clients and media partners as their historical counterparts. Everyone knew Clive, Mike and Simon at GMTV: like Kylie, Madonna or Elvis, even if you said just their first names, most people in the toy community would know who you were referring to. That personal touch seems like another era.

I attended a SuperAwesome breakfast presentation this week (at least some media operators are still pushing the boat out), and some of the facts and trends outlined during the event perhaps explain why media companies are behaving in the way they do. There was much talk about the concept of ‘hyper fragmentation’ – the idea of everyone, everywhere, all at once. Kids are apparently watching split screens and even screen stacking (using multiple devices at once). Once king, linear TV is now just one of a myriad of options for advertisers, who have to split their budgets across multiple platforms to reach the same number of kids that GMTV used to attract on a Saturday morning. Indeed, it seems that many kids would rather watch influencers play a computer game than traditional content, while here has been a huge drift to places like YouTube and TikTok (which is not only being used as a search engine by young children, but it is where the majority of crazes are now originating before they hit the school playground).

However, there are clouds on the horizon: there is serious talk of TikTok being banned in the US, after the House of Representatives passed a bill insisting its Chinese owner sells its controlling stake or face being outlawed. Whether that would be an isolated situation, or it would spill over to the UK and Europe is highly debatable – but taken in conjunction with the very real threat of 60% tariffs being introduced on Chinese made goods if Trump wins the election, a ban on TikTok would be another huge blow to the toy market.

Here in Europe, we have our own legislative hurdles to overcome. The European Parliament voted this week on the new Toy Safety Directive, which according to the Toy Industries of Europe organisation contains some worrying requirements. Among the most eye-catching clauses are restrictions on using naturally occurring ingredients in toys, which could mean that safe toys like crayons, paints and chalks would be banned. In addition, it will also make it extremely difficult to maintain the current exemption for the safe use of stainless steel, which is needed for outdoor toys such as trampolines, go-carts and the like. To add further complication, the proposed transition period is only 30 months, while online sellers from outside the EU can seemingly continue to flout the regulations without fear of prosecution.

Frankly, it is all a bit of a mess – but wait, could the UK choose to ignore these new regulations, as it is with the new battery rules? Is it like London buses – you wait eight long years for a Brexit dividend, and two come along in a matter of weeks? It’s all happened so fast that further digging on the whole subject is required – which rest assure we will be doing, so we can keep everyone up to date with what’s happening. And I am sure all the individual toy associations and organisations like the TIE will be pressing hard for changes and compromise at the next stages of the directive.

With talk of a ban on TikTok, tariffs on toys coming from China, misguided EU regulations and everything else, external pressures on the toy market continue to make everyone’s lives just that little more complicated than they need to be – and that is before we consider trading conversations and economic factors. So yes, it’s challenging – as everyone knows. But I asked someone this week whether they could remember a year when it was easy. When getting selections and orders was a stroll in the park? When everyone on both sides of the fence was happy with margins and terms, and consumers thought toys were a bargain and purchased them in droves? When getting deliveries into retailers’ warehouses was a breeze? When marketing to the consumer was straightforward and cost effective? When everyone started the year thinking “this year is going to be huge”? I’ve been at this game for over four decades, and honestly, I am struggling to place that golden year when the stars aligned. If you can remember when it was, feel free to enlighten me.

Alternatively, I guess we will have to do what we always do – face the challenges head on and hopefully overcome them. Sleeves rolled up, let’s get stuck in. Don’t let the bean counters and bureaucrats win.

Anyone hoping for fireworks in this week’s budget statement is likely to be feeling pretty disappointed right now: not so much a rocket, more like a Catherine Wheel that you lit which never started spinning and just fizzled out. I am not sure if the Chancellor will get the chance to have another go at lighting a fire under the economy before the election (although a November election surely looks nailed on after yesterday), but this attempt is unlikely to draw too many ‘oohs and aahs’ from the public.

So, basically, we are on our own. The government hasn’t (yet) put more money into people’s pockets – even allowing for national insurance reductions, with the increases in council taxes and tax threshold freezes, consumers are effectively no better off (and in many cases, considerably worse off). If suppliers and retailers are going to encourage consumers to part with their cash, they’re going to have to do it of their own accord. However, after the last few years, I guess we’re all used to that.

And from what I know of toy companies and retailers, they’ll be up for the challenge. There was ‘newness’ aplenty on show during Toy Fair season. Some of those new ranges have started to arrive at retail, others will be landing imminently. We spoke to a small selection of specialist independent retailers after the London Toy Fair, to ask them which new launches caught their eye – and we received a wonderfully broad and varied response. If there was little consensus among such a modest-sized focus group, it’s fair to assume that the thousands of retailers who attended the show found a wide variety of lines they are excited to bring into stock. There may not be one standout craze right now, but that is arguably better for a broader group of suppliers than if one hot new line was dominant.

One topic that did enter the conversation frequently at Toy Fair was pricing. It was noticeable that many toy companies had responded to the economic challenges of last year with sharper pricing, which can only be a good thing. Of course, it is not always easy, especially when inflation and price increases are bearing down just as heavily on suppliers as on consumers. But gone are the days of knowingly pricing a range on the warm side and hoping to get away with it – for now at least.

More than anyone, retailers will be aware of needing to offer value and competitive deals – although what actually constitutes ‘competitive’ is a very subjective subject. I spoke to one prominent retail owner last year, who told me he had gone round a competitor’s store with a long-time industry friend and colleague, playing a game of ‘name that price.’ He admitted that they both consistently guessed far lower than the actual retail price (and the store they were in is well-known for offering good value). Now, this may simply be a case of two individuals who see ‘value’ differently to other people. Or maybe they had a point, and toy pricing has been driven a little too high by cost increases simply being added on to arrive at a new price, rather than starting with the product’s optimal retail price and working out how to hit that.

I am going back quite a few years here, but I remember when industry legend Tom Cassidy told me very early on in my career that he felt many toy companies worked the pricing equation from the wrong end: they worked out what a product would cost to make and ship, added on the profit they wanted to make plus the retailer’s margin to arrive at the item’s price. Tom preferred to work the other way round: he looked at a line, assessed what he thought the consumer would pay for it, then worked backwards to check that it could be manufactured to hit that price, while ensuring everyone could make enough money from it. If that couldn’t be achieved, he told me he never produced the line (even if he thought it was a great product). Some may say that times have changed, but what doesn’t change is that all businesses need to make a decent profit, or they won’t survive long term – and everyone in the chain has a part to play in making sure that equation balances out.

Retailers also seem to be turning the clock back in terms of how they grab shoppers’ attention in-store. I popped into Asda yesterday lunchtime, where the usual background music was interrupted by a minute-long announcement detailing a list of aggressive special offers that were available on food. That sort of tactic used to happen quite a lot in supermarkets, but I am not sure I have heard anything quite so blatantly ‘salesy’ since Dave Cave used to get on the microphone at a Makro store to tell everyone they should buy a Rockin’ Flower while stocks lasted!

Given the economic pressure on consumers, I suspect that retailers will also be disappointed that yesterday’s budget offered no respite from the ongoing (over) burden of business rates, curtailing their ability to offer keener prices. Retail owner John Timpson spoke eloquently about this at a recent House of Lords select committee hearing: the thrust of his argument was that when he started out in business, the rule of thumb was that rates were a third of the cost of rent. Now, in some instances, rates are considerably more than the rent, putting brick and mortar retailers at a massive competitive disadvantage against online retailers. If we really do want to regenerate our High Streets, that needs to be addressed urgently by whichever government is in power.

Before I go, there is just time to congratulate Simon Tomlinson on being appointed MD at Learning Resources, which he will take over when Dennis Blackmore steps into an advisory role in May, and also to welcome Thomas Randrup back to the toy fold, after he was appointed country manager for the UK and Ireland at Tactic Games.

I was also sad to hear that toy stalwart John Birchwood passed away a few weeks ago – another big toy personality has left us. I always think it’s important to remember people like John, Barry Harding, Mark Sharp and others who have left us recently, who all made an important contribution to the toy market over the years and left their mark. Toys is a tight-knit community, and they will always be remembered.

I’ve just returned back from a few days’ mini-break in Spain – I left Malaga yesterday basking in glorious 20-degree sunshine and arrived back a few hours later to a cold and very damp UK, where spring has certainly not yet sprung. You have no idea how close I came to imitating that famous meme of Grandpa Simpson walking into a room, then turning straight round and walking out again.

In last week’s Blog, I suggested that I was struggling to identify a single tangible Brexit benefit after eight (long) years. Thankfully I have a very helpful (and engaged) bunch of readers, and later that day I received a call from someone who appears to have found one. After 18th August, the EU will apparently be banning the importation of all batteries containing lead – including the 6v and 12v batteries that are used in e-scooters, electric ride-ons and other toy ranges. However, I am told that the BTHA has looked into the matter and advised members that the regulations don’t apply to the UK market, as Brexit has allowed us to diverge from EU regulations in certain circumstances.

Having been away most of the week, I haven’t had time to dig too much further into the situation, so apologies if I have misconstrued anything important. Basically, my understanding is that the EU decision has been driven by wanting to adopt what they perceive as an environmentally friendly policy, and that it would mean lead batteries would need to be replaced by lithium ones. I gather that not everyone believes that lithium batteries are necessarily better for the environment (citation needed though) and, there is also some debate as to whether they are safer (the increase in the number of fires associated with lithium-powered scooters suggests there may be an issue if the batteries are not rigorously tested and verified and supplied by legitimate companies). However, what doesn’t appear to be in dispute is the fact that lithium batteries would be around 20% more expensive than their lead counterparts.

So, in theory, taking a different path to the EU will enable suppliers to offer cheaper products to UK customers. That said, will suppliers want to have two different ranges for the European market – one for the UK and one for the EU? And how will a retailer – such as, for example, Smyths or The Entertainer – which operates across both territories select ranges (especially if they plan to move stock between the two areas)?

There are definitely some grey areas here, but as far as some people are concerned, we may have finally found that rarest of rarities – a real-life Brexit benefit out in the wild, not just a nebulous concept like ‘sovereignty’. Now, whether the ability to charge £10 less for a scooter really balances up the 4% hit to the UK’s GDP or the £200m bill that has been estimated for food importers (and will undoubtedly be passed on to consumers) when the new post-Brexit importation checks are finally introduced, I will leave you to decide. Maybe if we can find a few more areas where regulatory divergence makes logical sense and is not just a case of watering down sensible safety measures, that debate will be more balanced.

Elsewhere this week, Hornby has welcomed the Frasers Group as a strategic shareholder, after the retailer took its total shareholding up to 8.9% of the company; the British Chamber of Commerce has estimated that up to half of UK businesses have been impacted by the effects of ongoing attacks in the Red Sea and The Entertainer has started its 33-week roll-out programme to Tesco stores, with the first batch of 23 stores in Scotland set to open this week. Now that’s a bit far for me to go to take a sneak peek at how they’re looking, but if there are any readers from the toy community who are based in Scotland and would like to report back on what they’ve seen, that would be very much appreciated. Like everyone else, I am fascinated to see how the product mix is shaping up.

Finally, the March issue of Toy World has been landing on desks this week, and it is now available to read online. The edition looks both back – at this year’s Toy Fair Season – and forward, as we start to showcase the wealth of new products that will shortly be hitting shelves. This month’s features focus on the Outdoor, Action Vehicles and Science & Nature categories, where there is plenty of inspiration for retailers looking to freshen up their offerings in these areas. There are also exclusive interviews with Playmobil and Playtime PR, who are celebrating their 50th and 10th anniversaries respectively – we always like to mark happy occasions.

The March edition is our third issue of 2024 – fourth if you include our standalone January Nuremberg supplement – meaning we have already published 700 pages of print content since the turn of the year (and yet I still see some numpties on LinkedIn claiming that print is dead…). And our next two issues are already looking pretty magnificent, even if I do say so myself – so if you have product in the (deep breath) Pre-School, Pocket Money & Collectibles, Games & Puzzles or Dolls categories, or if you supply a range of character licensed merchandise, or you are exhibiting at either the Toymaster Show or the Las Vegas Licensing Expo, do get in touch now to book your space in what I promise will be two extremely well-read and interesting publications.

And hopefully, by the time those issues are published, the weather here in the UK might start resembling Spain rather than Alaska.

I have mentioned in several pieces recently that the fact it’s an election year in both the UK and US could have far-reaching implications for the toy community. The most obvious area where this could manifest itself is in the economic arena. Typically, an incumbent government holds back tax giveaways in the years heading up to an election, so it can unleash the maximum benefit just as people are about to cast their votes. You could call this deeply cynical and manipulative, but it’s a tactic that isn’t going away – especially when a government is as unpopular as the current UK one, it’s one of the few weapons in its armoury.

One thing is for certain: alleviating the pressure on consumer budgets will be welcomed by all suppliers and retailers right now, even if it’s only by small margins. It’s not been a bad start to the year by any means, but there are a lot of special offers and discounts flying around to tempt consumers. Whether these are driven by retailers or suppliers is unclear, but pricing remains a thorny subject with many of the people I have been speaking to. It’s not just mainstream toy ranges that are affected either: many toy stores have benefitted from the growth of World Book Day in recent years, and I saw some very aggressive promotions from the likes of Tesco and Matalan on their dress-up ranges this week, so the ‘disease’ of discounting ahead of a peak sales period is obviously catching.

Anyway, I digress – it’s not just fiscal policy that comes into play in an election year. Candidates will put forward proposals that they see as vote winners, which may have a profound effect on businesses. We saw it with the UK and Brexit: it has been nearly eight years and it’s still an unholy mess that businesses are having to deal with on an ongoing basis (as we found ourselves when we sent a bulk delivery of magazines to Nuremberg this year…). But the sad truth is that neither UK political party dares to speak the unspeakable for fear of prompting a backlash and losing votes.

However, our Brexit challenges could pale into insignificance compared to what might happen in the US this year. Former president Donald Trump is attempting to return to the White House, and one of his more eye-watering policies is a promise to impose tariffs of more than 60% on Chinese goods. I can only imagine what is going through the minds of US toy companies and the US Toy Association right now, regardless of their political persuasion.

Trump is positioning this as a patriotic measure aimed at “making America great again” with the unspoken subtext of punishing China in the process. On the face of it, that might appeal to his core voter base. In practice, it would of course be a spectacular own goal, inflicting damage on the American people by pushing up the prices of just about every consumer product (although he’s hardly going to come out and call it what it is – a “60% patriotism tax”).

The knock-on effect could be huge. Toy companies would have to frantically scramble to reshore production, or at least move it to new countries – although that would have its own challenges. And to make matters worse, Trump is suggesting a blanket 10% tariff on all imports – so nowhere across the world is safe from tariffs apart from domestic US production (I bet those few US toy companies with a domestic manufacturing base are practically salivating at the thought…).

The likely upshot would be that US toy prices would soar in the short term, and that in turn could heavily impact sales volumes. Chinese factories would either find themselves with massive over-capacity, or with not enough orders to stay operational. And historically, if the US toy market catches a cold, the whole world ends up getting it too.

Of course, there is no guarantee that Trump will win – although reports increasingly suggest it is at very least plausible (which, incidentally, to the rest of the world seems beyond insane). And even if he does win, maybe this is just bluster aimed at winning votes of people who naively think this would benefit them. Perhaps it is simply a threat or a negotiating tactic with China and will never be enacted – very much Trump’s modus operandi. Nevertheless, another trade war between the US and China really isn’t something that anyone across the globe should be relishing. We reported earlier this week that Lego will begin work on its new US manufacturing site in Virginia later this year, with an expectation of being fully operational in 2027. There may be a few other toy companies running feasibility studies to see if they could follow suit if Trump really does do the unthinkable and win (heaven forbid).

Back here in the UK, I was sad to report that Barry Harding passed away recently. Barry had a long and successful sales career in the toy market, making many friends along the way – as the warm comments under my LinkedIn post attest. He was a consummate professional, always a pleasure to speak to – although he retired in 2018, I gather he kept in touch with many people from the toy community, and I am sure many are planning to attend his funeral. Our condolences to his family and all those who knew him.

It’s only five weeks until Easter, so we should get a decent gauge by then of how the early part of the year is shaping up. In the meantime, the UK toy community is waiting for the first wave of the new Entertainer toy sections in Tesco to open, to get a sense of how they will differ from previous Tesco toy aisles. And we’re all waiting for the election to be called to see what changes that may bring. I feel like a character in a Samuel Beckett play…just a bit more cheerful and (cautiously) optimistic that this year is going to turn out fine, as long as the voting public in both the UK & US does the right thing.

Traditionally, many people from the UK toy community would have been over in New York for the US Toy Fair this week. But with the North American trade show landscape currently in a state of flux, we find ourselves without a US-based Q1 show for another year, before it is scheduled to return to New York in early March 2025. I am sure that’s a subject I will return to in future Blogs, but for now, one of the positives from everyone not being out of the office for another week is that all the follow up from Toy Fair Season gets done just that little bit quicker (although here in the UK, half term certainly doesn’t help).

Achieving a happy equilibrium between seeing the people you need to see and doing the things you need to do is a constant balancing act for everyone in the global toy community across Q4 and Q1. I was speaking to someone this week who told me he had a fantastic London Toy Fair, although he had been disappointed that several retailers had cancelled previews with him in December. I asked him if he felt the two were connected, and it did get me thinking: there was a tremendous retail turn-out at Toy Fair this year, and I do wonder if it makes sense for retailers to maximise their time by seeing 40-50 people over three days in London, rather than visiting individual companies for previews in Q4.

I appreciate that trade shows and previews are two entirely different things, and that having a buyer visit your office for a preview for half (or a whole) day is a dream for suppliers. But equally, Q4 is a markedly different trading landscape these days, with buyers needing to be highly reactive to dynamic pricing, stock fluctuations, marketing activity and many other facets of modern retailing – and it is harder to keep on top of all that if you are constantly out of the office all day at previews in the run-up to the festive season.

In the past, much of the retail reactiveness would come the minute the Argos catalogue launched, or when a Christmas flyer landed (which was why so many sales directors went on holiday when the Argos catalogue launched, to avoid being shouted at down the phone by certain accounts). Now, pricing can change on a daily basis, sometimes several times in a single day. A bit like monitoring the stock market, it’s a constant and ever-changing process. I am sure previews will continue, but I got the sense last year that fewer toy companies were block booking whole months out for previews, and I do wonder if buyers will focus more on concentrated events like LA, where they can see a large number of companies in a short space of time, rather than visiting individual companies at their offices throughout November and December– although I’m curious to hear what other people think.

Even though there is no event in New York this week, it remains the time of the year when the big toy companies announce their Q4 and full year results (I wonder if they will postpone them to coincide with the New York Toy Fair next year or keep them in the middle of February?). This week has seen Mattel, Hasbro and Spin Master unveil their 2023 figures: the pattern that generally emerged was of a challenging year which was mitigated by a strong finish to the year in Q4. Mattel and Spin Master in particular can take comfort from their respective Q4 performances, driven by key evergreen brands and new launches, which sets both companies up nicely for the year ahead. Hasbro’s Q4 numbers didn’t quite come through in the same way, but Furby was certainly a bright spot, as was the performance of Wizards of the Coast across the whole of 2023.  There are some excellent new launches for ’24 which we saw in Nuremberg, and hopefully it’s now a case of drawing a line under last year and moving onwards and upwards.

Back in the UK, I was very sad to report the sudden, untimely passing of popular sales agent Mark Sharp at the end of last week. The huge number of heartfelt comments on my LinkedIn post reflect just how well-loved and respected he was amongst his industry peers, colleagues and customers. Our thoughts are with his family at this very sad time.

Elsewhere, there have been reports that the Very Group owners the Barclay family are exploring options to sell the business. Very is said to have approached several private equity firms to sound out their interest, but the owners have allegedly put a “hefty” valuation of £4b on the company and are said to be unwilling to budge, leading some to speculate that a sale is unlikely. Meanwhile, the new Asda owners have been grappling with the first-world problem of whether it is acceptable to borrow millions from the parent company (EG Group) to pay down debts incurred on buying not one but two private jets (I love the fact they couldn’t share one, but each had to have their own. Perfectly normal behaviour). After all, it’s not as if their debt-laden takeover of Asda has come under government scrutiny recently. Oh wait…

Finally, it has been announced that Jazwares has decided to take legal action against Build-a-Bear, which it has accused of “copying the look, feel and tactile design” of Squishmallows. To be fair, I saw numerous ranges in both London and Nuremberg which – one could possibly argue – are also sailing very close to the wind in that regard, so it will be interesting to find out in the fullness of time why Jazwares chose Build-a-Bear to go after. Maybe on this occasion the design has finally crossed the line, or maybe Jazwares feels it will garner more publicity to go after a big name like that, which in turn may scare others off without the need for legal action. Perhaps there is a perception that Build-a-Bear has deep pockets and is therefore a more attractive target? Whatever the rationale, I bet there are a few toy companies which will be nervously checking the post every morning just in case they’re the next in line for a letter from Jazwares’ solicitors…

I was due to visit Spring Fair this week, but sadly I was struck down with a post-Nuremberg lurgy (Nuremblurgy? Nurembug?), so I wasn’t able to make it. Thankfully, another member of the Toy World team was able to make the trip and reported a steady show, with several toy exhibitors happy with the level of retail interest. The dedicated Kids & Play section seems to get smaller every year, but there was also a healthy representation from toy companies in adjacent halls so, overall, there is still a respectable presence from toy companies looking to reach different retailers – small gift shops, garden centres, zoos, theme parks etc – than the accounts that come to London Toy Fair. It’s not for everyone, but for those with the right product (and the right margin capacity), there are certainly opportunities.

However, unfortunately not every visitor had a positive experience. Midco Toys’ Dave Middleton might have thought that winning the Independent Toy Retailer of the Year award would see suppliers welcoming him with open arms (that and the fact he’s a successful retailer who can shift decent volumes of product), but one particular Spring Fair exhibitor obviously didn’t read the script. If you didn’t read Dave’s LinkedIn post about his experience, it is well worth checking out. Essentially, the tl:dr is that Dave was treated appallingly by the reps from Jellycat, who made it abundantly clear that they didn’t want to engage with him in a prolonged, fairly unpleasant exchange. I have to be honest and say I wasn’t surprised when Dave told me what had happened: this company has ‘previous’ for excessive snobbery and rudeness. I gave up even bothering to try to talk to them years ago. Under Dave’s post, which has been viewed by over 30,000 people, there were numerous comments from people who have had a similar experience with this particular company (it’s obviously part of its DNA), plus a neat Mean Girls reference from Dave, and Vivid’s Darrell Jones comparing Dave to Julia Roberts from Pretty Woman…seriously, it really is worth reading the entire thread.

I genuinely struggle to comprehend why anyone would pay £50k++ for a stand at a trade show to adopt a sales prevention mentality and tell people they can’t open an account unless they practically beg. Maybe it’s a reverse psychology thing – treat ‘em mean, keep ‘em keen? Perhaps that used to work in the bad old days, but I’m not sure it’s still a winning strategy.

And what must the show organisers think – they can’t be happy with visitors having such a bad experience. I appreciate that the Jellycat team can run their business however they see fit – that’s their call. But given all the bad publicity that has followed one poor interaction (30,000 viewers and counting), I would be amazed if the company didn’t revisit its trade show policy. And if they don’t, I am sure they will reap what they have sown. I suggested a few weeks ago that I would periodically be highlighting disappointing behaviour by retailers under the ‘twit of the week’ heading (I gather the inaugural inductee was apparently less than thrilled with its nomination, but when asked “but did you do it?” had to admit it was all true). Although not a retailer, I think Jellycat has fully earnt a place in the ‘twit…’ hall of fame this week. Inspired by Dave and Darren, I’m also going to throw in a pop culture reference of my own: “Jellycat, Jellycat, what are they feeding you? Jellycat, Jellycat, it’s all your fault.”

Another retailer who – going on past form – is almost certainly going to be in the running for a ‘twit’ nomination on a semi-regular basis is our old friend Amazon, who this week has been warned by the government to unfreeze seller funds it has been withholding as part of campaign of stricter VAT checks. In theory, this whole matter should be relatively straightforward. All online sellers should pay VAT where legally applicable – if not, they are avoiding / evading tax and negatively impacting the NHS, education, family support, roads, infrastructure projects and a host of other areas where government funding is essential. That said, the process for Amazon to check this should not take as long as it is doing – it doesn’t seem that a sufficiently rigorous process is in place, or there aren’t enough Amazon employees to implement it. I have a VAT number and records of quarterly VAT returns that can be provided in minutes – how can the validation process take as long as four months? I was contacted by several toy companies saying they have had substantial amounts withheld for prolonged periods, and who have even received threats of account closure – in one case, because a company tried to add a new employee to the portal and his ID was rejected. Frankly, that’s just not good enough. Three words Amazonians: Sort. It. Out. Or you’ll be next into the ‘Twit’ Hall of Shame.

Thankfully, not everyone has had a bad week. Mattel must be delighted with its Q4 and annual results, which were unveiled a few days ago. While the US market declined -8% in 2023 and the major European markets were down -5%, Mattel had a stonking Q4 (+16%) which saw it end the year flat – and as I said a few weeks ago, “flat is the new up” (apparently someone quoted that phrase to Circana in Nuremberg last week, so it’s good to see some people are keeping an eye on my ramblings).

The Toy Association is also emerging from a turbulent period, with fresh impetus and new directions. I caught up with Interim president Andy Keimach this week, after the news that the Association has secured a building in LA from which toy companies can conduct previews in September. As Andy described it: “this year is a test drive to a permanent solution for both April and September moving forward.” It seems like the LA juggernaut won’t be slowing any time soon, and El Segundo will be its epicentre. Heck, I may even need to go along for the ride, although I do wish something could be done to streamline and solidify the dates. Most of us – including the people in the buildings that are springing up in El Segundo, plus retail and distributor visitors – will find it difficult to be there for 3-4 weeks (or more), and most of us are struggling to find where the sweet spot is when the greatest number of people will be around. Hopefully all will become clear in the fullness of time…