With only nine days trading left before the big day, the metaphorical bell has been rung and we are very much on the final lap, hurtling towards the finishing line like a long-lost episode of Wacky Races and hoping for one last sprint to make it a grandstand finish. And what a race it has been, full of twists and turns, highs and lows. After a sluggish first few laps, Black Friday saw the pace pick up considerably, although I saw a story this week which suggested that retail returns made throughout November were 26.6% higher than last year, with many of those returns being made in the last few days of the month – essentially, from Black Friday onwards. Let’s hope those returns mainly involved fashion items rather than toys.
The race was thrown into chaos recently when the Royal Mail (doing its best Dick Dastardly impression) decided to extend its strike throughout December, a move which has had a huge impact on many online sellers – I feel for them, especially the many specialist online toy retailers who really don’t deserve this. One of the biggest problems has been the knock-on effect on other couriers such as DPD, which admitted it would be prioritising its larger accounts over its smaller, regular customers, extending the impact to brick and mortar retailers. One toy wholesaler trying to supply indies with top-up orders told me that DPD told him it had “run out of delivery slots in this postcode”, suggesting he should “try again in 48 hours.” His feeling was that anything less than a pallet load was likely to be held up. The snowfalls in the early part of the week probably didn’t help either.
There have been a couple of positives though – such as brick and mortar retailers benefiting from the ongoing delivery shenanigans and England getting knocked out of the World Cup. Yes, I did just say that. Of course, on a personal level, I am gutted about the result. Just once, rather than losing valiantly with our heads held high, I would love it if we got absolutely battered but fluked a win with a deflected goal off Harry Maguire’s backside or something similar. Maybe next time? Anyway, the final takes place this Sunday afternoon – on the last Sunday before Christmas, when many people will have been paid this Friday – the very definition of a peak trading day for so many toy retailers. One independent estimated that had England got through to the final, it would have at very least cost him £12-15,000 – and that was assuming consumers still came out to shop in the morning. If they had decided to go full on ‘final crazy’ and make a day of it, he reckoned it would have set him back around £25,000. That’s quite a hit to take for a football match….and imagine that figure multiplied by dozens/hundreds for retailers with multiple branches.
More good news came from Hong Kong this week, where quarantine restrictions have been scaled back dramatically. This announcement came out of the blue, even for my many contacts who live in Hong Kong – they had been predicting this would happen next spring, but few genuinely thought it would happen this side of Christmas. Who knows what impact the recent protests in China had – but there is a feeling that it was easier for Hong Kong to relax restrictions now that China has finally decided to make concessions.
It’s great news for anyone who was planning to head out to Hong Kong in January – the shackles are now off, and with the exception of taking a few Covid tests and wearing a mask outdoors during their stay, it should be a relatively normal experience. The huge shame is that this announcement wasn’t made a month ago – that might have given even more people time to commit to the trip and make appointments. One of my contacts based in Hong Kong told me that he has seen a surge in people booking showroom visits after the announcement this week, with requests from buyers from across the globe, including USA, Australia and Europe (including the UK). It could have been even busier with a little more notice, but it seems like those who wrote off Hong Kong may have been a bit premature.
Speaking of January, the Toy World team has opened its diaries for both the London and Nuremberg Toy Fairs. So, if you would like to show us your exciting new launches for ’23 and have a chat about how we can work together to showcase your range to the retail community next year, drop us a line and we’ll be delighted to book a slot in for you.
Finally, as the race draws to a thrilling climax, spare a thought for those retailers who aren’t perhaps getting the footfall they used to. Wary as I am to draw conclusions from an individual visit, this picture of an Argos branch in my local Sainsbury’s epitomises the ‘how the might have fallen’ aura surrounding Argos at the moment. The shot was taken last Saturday afternoon, on a day when Watford town centre was heaving. I actually took two pictures, two hours apart – but basically, the story was the same. One solitary person in a queue – if you can call one person a queue. I fondly remember Argos branches of yore, with long lines of people waiting to collect orders throughout December. Ok, so maybe those people are all having them home delivered these days (Royal Mail strikes notwithstanding), but even so, I just have this nagging feeling that Argos doesn’t quite resonate with the public at Christmas in the way it once did. I heard recently that Argos may even be adopting some infamous grocery practices – putting categories ‘out to tender’…. really? I thought that strategy had been largely discredited in the heavily commoditised food channels, yet alone a category like toys which is driven by innovation and emotion. Anyhoo, I am sure they know what they’re doing.
Have a fantastic weekend’s trading – at least very few Brits will be staying home on Sunday afternoon to watch a World Cup Final between two nations which most of us wish could both lose…
