Exclusive: Circana looks at how 2023 will end up

Published on: 10th October 2023

Circana notes that this year, Christmas falls on a Monday, giving toy retailers everything to play for right until the last minute.

Emilie Erktan. senior account manager, Toys UK, Circana, looks at toy sales so far this year and anticipates how they are likely to develop in the run up to Christmas.

“As we approach the all-important festive season, the usual anticipation is starting to build for a strong peak season,” writes Emilie. “YTD August sales show the market reducing by -4% in value year-on-year, but this performance is heavily influenced by the Outdoor and Sports Toys supercategory, which is responsible for 58% of the decline, largely as a result of the poor weather over the summer months. Excluding the Outdoor supercategory, UK toy market sales are relatively flat, only down -1% YTD August.”

Despite the total value decline, several areas have performed well this year. As of August 2023, 30 subclasses are in growth: the top three growing subclasses – Standard Building Sets, Traditional Plush and Strategic Trading Cards –have delivered a combined additional +£21m of sales versus last year.

Emilie highlights which specific lines have added the most growth to their respective categories, looks at key areas that have continually out-performed the market in 2023 – Licences and Collectibles-  and examines how top ten manufacturers are up +1% combined, with half of them in growth YTD August 23, compared to last year.

“Finally, we should remember that Christmas falls on a Monday this year,” writes Emilie. Her article reveals encouraging data that shows how this benefits retailers. “This shows that consumers chose to leave their shopping until late in the season, and we expect a similar trend this year,” she concludes. “Last-minute stocking fillers or gift purchases over that final weekend could make a big difference to the final Christmas sales performance.”

With an additional look at the hottest Licence Progression and the current Fastest Growing Properties, read the full article, which appeared in the October edition of Toy World, here.


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