It’s the height of summer – not that you would know that looking out of the window today. But even though we have seen an inevitable drop-off in major news stories during the summer lull, the Toy World team has had an incredibly busy month. With the issues & supplements we will be publishing in both September and October clocking in over the 200-page mark, we’ve certainly had plenty to keep us occupied. Putting together issues of that size while a significant proportion of the community is away on holiday adds an extra layer of fun to proceedings – but as a monthly magazine, time waits for no man. I can’t even begin to fathom what people who work at magazines that don’t publish an issue for 3½ months do with their day…?!

The summer also seems to bring out a spate of controversial LinkedIn posts – it’s almost as if some people are bored and just fancy making a little mischief. They’ve been out in force this week – I’ve just sat back with my metaphorical popcorn and watched as the debate gets livelier (and blunter) with each post.

This week, the LinkedIn mischief-makers have been back to one of their favourite topics – the timing of global trade fairs. As I have said previously, I tend to be more of an observer than an active participant when it comes to the debate around international events. But I do try to see all sides, rather than having a specific personal agenda to push. So, while I can certainly see that some of the points being made have merit, I also see why other people might have a different perspective.

I have been thinking a bit about why the perspectives differ so greatly and have reached the fairly obvious conclusion that it is because individual suppliers and retailers often have very different needs and approaches. As an example, I read a comment this week from someone (who I respect greatly) suggesting that Nuremberg is too late because “all the UK retailers have made their decisions” by then. That surprised me, but on reflection, I guess it comes down to how you interpret the phrase “made their decisions.” Has every retailer officially confirmed selections in writing to suppliers by that stage? Do they physically have written orders? From what I have heard anecdotally for the past few years, that would seem unlikely (feel free to prove me wrong by showing me the order confirmations for autumn winter selections dated January).

That would therefore infer that those suppliers may have been given verbal indications about selections. Fair enough, but…if they don’t have anything in writing, could the buyer’s mind be changed, or their head turned by things they see in London or Nuremberg? I amended my Fantasty Football team twice in the hour before the deadline last week, having been settled on my team for the previous week. Of course, the more established and successful the company, the less likely that is to happen – but nevertheless, as they say, “it ain’t over ‘til it’s over.”

Although, there is another way to look at it…and for this next section, I have KidsKnowBest’s Rob Lough to thank. Talking to Rachael for our September Pre-Christmas marketing feature (my goodness, things are getting complicated in the world of consumer-facing marketing…if you thought Optimus AI was a new Transformer, this is the feature for you), he spoke about his “50-30-20” rule, which is a way of apportioning spend on proven tactics, calculated risks and experimentation. Now, what if we ascribe the same thinking to retail buyers? In their case, the 50% figure would represent carry forward lines and brands, the perennially successful performers; the 30% calculated risks are the new launches and emerging brands; and finally, the 20% are the ‘punts’.

Is it fair to say that by the time the January fairs start, the buyers have decided on their 50% safe bets. But that the 30% risks and 20% punts are still very much up for grabs? Would this explain why some people feel “it is all done and dusted” by the turn of the year, while many other companies and retailers still see opportunities at the January and February shows? Presumably it depends whether you work for a company with ongoing guaranteed selections, or a company looking to grow market share and grab new opportunities?

That theory would at least go some way to explaining why some people claim the early year shows are too late to influence selections, yet Walmart and Target visited Nuremberg last year in February – that is a lot of time, cost and effort right there if the selections were all locked down. And if that were the case, why has the London Toy Fair already sold out, with a waiting list (and bear in mind that space had already been extended for the 70th anniversary show in 2024)?

I have reached the conclusion that essentially everyone is right – if they are looking purely at their own business. But as each business is different, that explains the variance in belief about the timing of shows. Not exactly rocket science to be fair, but I only detail my thoughts for the benefit of those who post about their own experience, with the belief that it is universal.

And on the subject of Toy Fairs, if you are planning to go to Nuremberg from the UK and haven’t yet booked your flights, you might want to put aside some time to take a look at the options while it’s quiet. As someone who has been visiting Nuremberg for over 40 years, this year’s flight choices seem on the face of it to be the least appealing for some while. Ryan Air in particular appears to have lost the plot. Want to return from Nuremberg on Thursday? There is one option – 6.00 in the morning. You may as well stay in the Irish Bar and go straight to the airport (in fact, I think that is how Ryan Air came up with their scheduling). The Friday return flight is a little better at 10.00am, while on Saturday it is 10.00pm. Are they picking take off times at random out of a hat?? Remarkably, that is still better than BA, which has no direct flights to Nuremberg at all – either way – on either Wednesday or Thursday. I am not sure if they have already sold out or BA has missed those days out for a reason, but the outcome is the same – flying to Munich (approx. three hours by train from the airport to Nuremberg) seems to be the best option. We’ll all still go, of course, but my word they don’t make it easy.