Several of the global toy giants have released their Q1 results this week. Of all the fiscal quarters, Q1 is arguably the least crucial for the toy market, so on one level it’s not worth reading too much into the results. Mattel had a reasonably solid quarter (down -1% globally, down a bit more in the international markets), while Hasbro’s results needed some decoding, with the sale of eOne in December rather skewing the numbers. Taking that out of the equation, revenue declined by -9%, with the consumer products segment (i.e. the toy division) largely behind that drop.
After the stock problems at the start of last year, the fact that Hasbro-owned inventory in Q1 was down 53% versus last year, including a 57% decline in Consumer Products inventory, was no great surprise – that situation needed to be addressed as a matter of urgency. However, if you take those figures in conjunction with the announcement that yet another Hasbro brand (Power Rangers) is being ‘outsourced’ – this time to Playmates – it does indicate a specific direction of travel for the company.
Hasbro acquired the Power Rangers brand from Saban in 2018 in a $500m deal: just six years later, the company has decided that – and I quote – “Playmates is the perfect fit to fully expand the franchise.” I am certainly not disputing that assertion – Playmates has done a fantastic job with Turtles, Godzilla and other action figure ranges. But Hasbro was always known as having real strength in the ‘boys’ category (with Mattel being the mainstay in ‘girls’), so it’s quite the admission.
The other big news of the week comes from the Toys R US UK operation – I asked “where next” for the UK business last week, after the announcement of James Ford’s departure. Well, some details are beginning to emerge in answer to that question. I have been told by several people that the plan appears to be that WHSmith will be taking over responsibility for TRU in the UK moving forward. It sounds like the online business is likely to be closing in the next few weeks, but its physical footprint will be growing across the WHSmith store estate. If what I have heard is accurate, there is a plan to have up to 60 in-store TRU sections this autumn, with the aim of growing that number to 100 next year and 250 by 2026. Let’s see if that ambitious plan proves to be achievable in the long term. In fairness, I don’t think any of this will come as a massive surprise to most people in the UK toy community: I was never truly convinced about an Australian business running the UK operation, nor that the brand would be successful online here, and even less convinced that there was ever a realistic chance of standalone, large format Toys R Us stores returning to the UK. The world has moved on, and if there is a memory of Toys R Us (and consumer affection for the brand), it revolves around the large stores which were never going to be viable in the UK in 2024. But I wish WHSmith all the best in maintaining some for of presence for the brand on the High Street.
Like me, I am sure you will have seen posts on LinkedIn this week from UK toy retailers bemoaning the state of trade. Even B&M has been offering a 20% discount on its entire toy range this week – and that is a retailer that is known for offering strong value to begin with, and also a store which has a food offering, so should be getting decent regular footfall. Sainsbury’s announced stellar results this week – but the strong numbers were entirely driven by food, with Argos 0.5% down. Across the UK (not just at Sainsbury’s), general merchandise is having a challenging time, while food sales – an essential purchase – are soaring.
I go back to the point in my first paragraph, about the first part of the year not being make or break for the toy market – so let’s not panic just yet. That said, I am not doubting the accuracy of those retailers’ observations: if you go round your office and talk to your staff, I bet it won’t take you long to find someone whose mortgage payments have risen sharply, or whose car insurance is costing £500 more this year. This directly impacts consumers’ disposable income, and results in the quieter high streets and shopping centres retailers are seeing.
Sure, the weather isn’t helping. And it will be payday for many today, so hopefully we get some respite over the coming week. But across the board, retailers and suppliers are unsurprisingly proving to be risk averse, investors are nervous and consumers are having to adopt a cautious approach to spending. Fundamentally, we need to break that cycle, and moreover we need a government lazer-focused on working tirelessly to improve the country’s current fiscal position – but sadly we haven’t got one. Instead of addressing the very real issues affecting our economy, they are obsessing over sending a handful of desperate people on a plane to Africa. For goodness sake, Ant & Dec sent more people away on a plane on one Saturday evening and it didn’t cost them £1m per person and months of ridiculous legal wrangling.
Let’s be honest, they have lost the plot (the government, not Ant & Dec). Even its most ardent supporters must surely know deep down that it is time for a change. We need a renewed sense of hope and positivity – and that means a change at the top. I vividly remember the election of ’97, watching the results unfold through the night (Anita was up feeding our youngest daughter and realised what was happening, so we both got up, cracked open a bottle of cava and savoured the moment). In hindsight, the following decade was not a bad time for the ‘ordinary person’ – and we badly need to get back to that sense of optimism and possibility. The song that Labour adopted for that campaign was, of course, Things Can Only Get Better. Right now, I think we can all identify with that sentiment. Let’s hope they do…and the sooner the better.
