Anyone with a passing interest in horse racing will be aware that this was Cheltenham week – although not a massive fan myself, I have very fond memories of the festival from the days of being a guest of GMTV. I also remember walking around Cheltenham in just short sleeves on several occasions, so the weather is a little late in turning this year.

Those were great days to be working with GMTV. In addition to lovely long lunches (where beer and wine may have been taken), we played football matches at Premier League grounds (ironic that I played on far more top-class pitches after I had given up playing than I ever managed when I was in my prime) and they threw the best parties in New York and Hong Kong. The New York events in particular were legendary – US toy executives looked on with envy as 100 or so Brits were picked up by stretch limos from the toy building and whisked off to mystery destinations like Carnegie Hall to be entertained and plied with copious quantities of food and drink.

GMTV had a sizeable marketing budget and by golly they were determined to spend it. What a contrast with today: many of the big TV channels, streaming platforms and entertainment giants appear to be in the grip of over-zealous bean counters, and have developed ‘short arms, long pockets’ syndrome (in some cases, the arms are so short they resemble a particularly challenged Tyrannosaurus Rex). This reluctance to spend especially manifests itself at a trade level. Securing trade marketing spend can be like pulling teeth (whereas GMTV used to claim their annual trade ad spend back on their expenses, as they considered it too trivial to bother putting it through the system). Many don’t exhibit properly at trade shows. Launch events, parties and other opportunities to entertain clients are a rarity. Even lunches (proper lunches I mean) are few and far between. Just like Amazon at a supplier level, the new media and licensing giants don’t seem quite as interested in forging close personal bonds with their trade clients and media partners as their historical counterparts. Everyone knew Clive, Mike and Simon at GMTV: like Kylie, Madonna or Elvis, even if you said just their first names, most people in the toy community would know who you were referring to. That personal touch seems like another era.

I attended a SuperAwesome breakfast presentation this week (at least some media operators are still pushing the boat out), and some of the facts and trends outlined during the event perhaps explain why media companies are behaving in the way they do. There was much talk about the concept of ‘hyper fragmentation’ – the idea of everyone, everywhere, all at once. Kids are apparently watching split screens and even screen stacking (using multiple devices at once). Once king, linear TV is now just one of a myriad of options for advertisers, who have to split their budgets across multiple platforms to reach the same number of kids that GMTV used to attract on a Saturday morning. Indeed, it seems that many kids would rather watch influencers play a computer game than traditional content, while here has been a huge drift to places like YouTube and TikTok (which is not only being used as a search engine by young children, but it is where the majority of crazes are now originating before they hit the school playground).

However, there are clouds on the horizon: there is serious talk of TikTok being banned in the US, after the House of Representatives passed a bill insisting its Chinese owner sells its controlling stake or face being outlawed. Whether that would be an isolated situation, or it would spill over to the UK and Europe is highly debatable – but taken in conjunction with the very real threat of 60% tariffs being introduced on Chinese made goods if Trump wins the election, a ban on TikTok would be another huge blow to the toy market.

Here in Europe, we have our own legislative hurdles to overcome. The European Parliament voted this week on the new Toy Safety Directive, which according to the Toy Industries of Europe organisation contains some worrying requirements. Among the most eye-catching clauses are restrictions on using naturally occurring ingredients in toys, which could mean that safe toys like crayons, paints and chalks would be banned. In addition, it will also make it extremely difficult to maintain the current exemption for the safe use of stainless steel, which is needed for outdoor toys such as trampolines, go-carts and the like. To add further complication, the proposed transition period is only 30 months, while online sellers from outside the EU can seemingly continue to flout the regulations without fear of prosecution.

Frankly, it is all a bit of a mess – but wait, could the UK choose to ignore these new regulations, as it is with the new battery rules? Is it like London buses – you wait eight long years for a Brexit dividend, and two come along in a matter of weeks? It’s all happened so fast that further digging on the whole subject is required – which rest assure we will be doing, so we can keep everyone up to date with what’s happening. And I am sure all the individual toy associations and organisations like the TIE will be pressing hard for changes and compromise at the next stages of the directive.

With talk of a ban on TikTok, tariffs on toys coming from China, misguided EU regulations and everything else, external pressures on the toy market continue to make everyone’s lives just that little more complicated than they need to be – and that is before we consider trading conversations and economic factors. So yes, it’s challenging – as everyone knows. But I asked someone this week whether they could remember a year when it was easy. When getting selections and orders was a stroll in the park? When everyone on both sides of the fence was happy with margins and terms, and consumers thought toys were a bargain and purchased them in droves? When getting deliveries into retailers’ warehouses was a breeze? When marketing to the consumer was straightforward and cost effective? When everyone started the year thinking “this year is going to be huge”? I’ve been at this game for over four decades, and honestly, I am struggling to place that golden year when the stars aligned. If you can remember when it was, feel free to enlighten me.

Alternatively, I guess we will have to do what we always do – face the challenges head on and hopefully overcome them. Sleeves rolled up, let’s get stuck in. Don’t let the bean counters and bureaucrats win.

Anyone hoping for fireworks in this week’s budget statement is likely to be feeling pretty disappointed right now: not so much a rocket, more like a Catherine Wheel that you lit which never started spinning and just fizzled out. I am not sure if the Chancellor will get the chance to have another go at lighting a fire under the economy before the election (although a November election surely looks nailed on after yesterday), but this attempt is unlikely to draw too many ‘oohs and aahs’ from the public.

So, basically, we are on our own. The government hasn’t (yet) put more money into people’s pockets – even allowing for national insurance reductions, with the increases in council taxes and tax threshold freezes, consumers are effectively no better off (and in many cases, considerably worse off). If suppliers and retailers are going to encourage consumers to part with their cash, they’re going to have to do it of their own accord. However, after the last few years, I guess we’re all used to that.

And from what I know of toy companies and retailers, they’ll be up for the challenge. There was ‘newness’ aplenty on show during Toy Fair season. Some of those new ranges have started to arrive at retail, others will be landing imminently. We spoke to a small selection of specialist independent retailers after the London Toy Fair, to ask them which new launches caught their eye – and we received a wonderfully broad and varied response. If there was little consensus among such a modest-sized focus group, it’s fair to assume that the thousands of retailers who attended the show found a wide variety of lines they are excited to bring into stock. There may not be one standout craze right now, but that is arguably better for a broader group of suppliers than if one hot new line was dominant.

One topic that did enter the conversation frequently at Toy Fair was pricing. It was noticeable that many toy companies had responded to the economic challenges of last year with sharper pricing, which can only be a good thing. Of course, it is not always easy, especially when inflation and price increases are bearing down just as heavily on suppliers as on consumers. But gone are the days of knowingly pricing a range on the warm side and hoping to get away with it – for now at least.

More than anyone, retailers will be aware of needing to offer value and competitive deals – although what actually constitutes ‘competitive’ is a very subjective subject. I spoke to one prominent retail owner last year, who told me he had gone round a competitor’s store with a long-time industry friend and colleague, playing a game of ‘name that price.’ He admitted that they both consistently guessed far lower than the actual retail price (and the store they were in is well-known for offering good value). Now, this may simply be a case of two individuals who see ‘value’ differently to other people. Or maybe they had a point, and toy pricing has been driven a little too high by cost increases simply being added on to arrive at a new price, rather than starting with the product’s optimal retail price and working out how to hit that.

I am going back quite a few years here, but I remember when industry legend Tom Cassidy told me very early on in my career that he felt many toy companies worked the pricing equation from the wrong end: they worked out what a product would cost to make and ship, added on the profit they wanted to make plus the retailer’s margin to arrive at the item’s price. Tom preferred to work the other way round: he looked at a line, assessed what he thought the consumer would pay for it, then worked backwards to check that it could be manufactured to hit that price, while ensuring everyone could make enough money from it. If that couldn’t be achieved, he told me he never produced the line (even if he thought it was a great product). Some may say that times have changed, but what doesn’t change is that all businesses need to make a decent profit, or they won’t survive long term – and everyone in the chain has a part to play in making sure that equation balances out.

Retailers also seem to be turning the clock back in terms of how they grab shoppers’ attention in-store. I popped into Asda yesterday lunchtime, where the usual background music was interrupted by a minute-long announcement detailing a list of aggressive special offers that were available on food. That sort of tactic used to happen quite a lot in supermarkets, but I am not sure I have heard anything quite so blatantly ‘salesy’ since Dave Cave used to get on the microphone at a Makro store to tell everyone they should buy a Rockin’ Flower while stocks lasted!

Given the economic pressure on consumers, I suspect that retailers will also be disappointed that yesterday’s budget offered no respite from the ongoing (over) burden of business rates, curtailing their ability to offer keener prices. Retail owner John Timpson spoke eloquently about this at a recent House of Lords select committee hearing: the thrust of his argument was that when he started out in business, the rule of thumb was that rates were a third of the cost of rent. Now, in some instances, rates are considerably more than the rent, putting brick and mortar retailers at a massive competitive disadvantage against online retailers. If we really do want to regenerate our High Streets, that needs to be addressed urgently by whichever government is in power.

Before I go, there is just time to congratulate Simon Tomlinson on being appointed MD at Learning Resources, which he will take over when Dennis Blackmore steps into an advisory role in May, and also to welcome Thomas Randrup back to the toy fold, after he was appointed country manager for the UK and Ireland at Tactic Games.

I was also sad to hear that toy stalwart John Birchwood passed away a few weeks ago – another big toy personality has left us. I always think it’s important to remember people like John, Barry Harding, Mark Sharp and others who have left us recently, who all made an important contribution to the toy market over the years and left their mark. Toys is a tight-knit community, and they will always be remembered.

I’ve just returned back from a few days’ mini-break in Spain – I left Malaga yesterday basking in glorious 20-degree sunshine and arrived back a few hours later to a cold and very damp UK, where spring has certainly not yet sprung. You have no idea how close I came to imitating that famous meme of Grandpa Simpson walking into a room, then turning straight round and walking out again.

In last week’s Blog, I suggested that I was struggling to identify a single tangible Brexit benefit after eight (long) years. Thankfully I have a very helpful (and engaged) bunch of readers, and later that day I received a call from someone who appears to have found one. After 18th August, the EU will apparently be banning the importation of all batteries containing lead – including the 6v and 12v batteries that are used in e-scooters, electric ride-ons and other toy ranges. However, I am told that the BTHA has looked into the matter and advised members that the regulations don’t apply to the UK market, as Brexit has allowed us to diverge from EU regulations in certain circumstances.

Having been away most of the week, I haven’t had time to dig too much further into the situation, so apologies if I have misconstrued anything important. Basically, my understanding is that the EU decision has been driven by wanting to adopt what they perceive as an environmentally friendly policy, and that it would mean lead batteries would need to be replaced by lithium ones. I gather that not everyone believes that lithium batteries are necessarily better for the environment (citation needed though) and, there is also some debate as to whether they are safer (the increase in the number of fires associated with lithium-powered scooters suggests there may be an issue if the batteries are not rigorously tested and verified and supplied by legitimate companies). However, what doesn’t appear to be in dispute is the fact that lithium batteries would be around 20% more expensive than their lead counterparts.

So, in theory, taking a different path to the EU will enable suppliers to offer cheaper products to UK customers. That said, will suppliers want to have two different ranges for the European market – one for the UK and one for the EU? And how will a retailer – such as, for example, Smyths or The Entertainer – which operates across both territories select ranges (especially if they plan to move stock between the two areas)?

There are definitely some grey areas here, but as far as some people are concerned, we may have finally found that rarest of rarities – a real-life Brexit benefit out in the wild, not just a nebulous concept like ‘sovereignty’. Now, whether the ability to charge £10 less for a scooter really balances up the 4% hit to the UK’s GDP or the £200m bill that has been estimated for food importers (and will undoubtedly be passed on to consumers) when the new post-Brexit importation checks are finally introduced, I will leave you to decide. Maybe if we can find a few more areas where regulatory divergence makes logical sense and is not just a case of watering down sensible safety measures, that debate will be more balanced.

Elsewhere this week, Hornby has welcomed the Frasers Group as a strategic shareholder, after the retailer took its total shareholding up to 8.9% of the company; the British Chamber of Commerce has estimated that up to half of UK businesses have been impacted by the effects of ongoing attacks in the Red Sea and The Entertainer has started its 33-week roll-out programme to Tesco stores, with the first batch of 23 stores in Scotland set to open this week. Now that’s a bit far for me to go to take a sneak peek at how they’re looking, but if there are any readers from the toy community who are based in Scotland and would like to report back on what they’ve seen, that would be very much appreciated. Like everyone else, I am fascinated to see how the product mix is shaping up.

Finally, the March issue of Toy World has been landing on desks this week, and it is now available to read online. The edition looks both back – at this year’s Toy Fair Season – and forward, as we start to showcase the wealth of new products that will shortly be hitting shelves. This month’s features focus on the Outdoor, Action Vehicles and Science & Nature categories, where there is plenty of inspiration for retailers looking to freshen up their offerings in these areas. There are also exclusive interviews with Playmobil and Playtime PR, who are celebrating their 50th and 10th anniversaries respectively – we always like to mark happy occasions.

The March edition is our third issue of 2024 – fourth if you include our standalone January Nuremberg supplement – meaning we have already published 700 pages of print content since the turn of the year (and yet I still see some numpties on LinkedIn claiming that print is dead…). And our next two issues are already looking pretty magnificent, even if I do say so myself – so if you have product in the (deep breath) Pre-School, Pocket Money & Collectibles, Games & Puzzles or Dolls categories, or if you supply a range of character licensed merchandise, or you are exhibiting at either the Toymaster Show or the Las Vegas Licensing Expo, do get in touch now to book your space in what I promise will be two extremely well-read and interesting publications.

And hopefully, by the time those issues are published, the weather here in the UK might start resembling Spain rather than Alaska.

I have mentioned in several pieces recently that the fact it’s an election year in both the UK and US could have far-reaching implications for the toy community. The most obvious area where this could manifest itself is in the economic arena. Typically, an incumbent government holds back tax giveaways in the years heading up to an election, so it can unleash the maximum benefit just as people are about to cast their votes. You could call this deeply cynical and manipulative, but it’s a tactic that isn’t going away – especially when a government is as unpopular as the current UK one, it’s one of the few weapons in its armoury.

One thing is for certain: alleviating the pressure on consumer budgets will be welcomed by all suppliers and retailers right now, even if it’s only by small margins. It’s not been a bad start to the year by any means, but there are a lot of special offers and discounts flying around to tempt consumers. Whether these are driven by retailers or suppliers is unclear, but pricing remains a thorny subject with many of the people I have been speaking to. It’s not just mainstream toy ranges that are affected either: many toy stores have benefitted from the growth of World Book Day in recent years, and I saw some very aggressive promotions from the likes of Tesco and Matalan on their dress-up ranges this week, so the ‘disease’ of discounting ahead of a peak sales period is obviously catching.

Anyway, I digress – it’s not just fiscal policy that comes into play in an election year. Candidates will put forward proposals that they see as vote winners, which may have a profound effect on businesses. We saw it with the UK and Brexit: it has been nearly eight years and it’s still an unholy mess that businesses are having to deal with on an ongoing basis (as we found ourselves when we sent a bulk delivery of magazines to Nuremberg this year…). But the sad truth is that neither UK political party dares to speak the unspeakable for fear of prompting a backlash and losing votes.

However, our Brexit challenges could pale into insignificance compared to what might happen in the US this year. Former president Donald Trump is attempting to return to the White House, and one of his more eye-watering policies is a promise to impose tariffs of more than 60% on Chinese goods. I can only imagine what is going through the minds of US toy companies and the US Toy Association right now, regardless of their political persuasion.

Trump is positioning this as a patriotic measure aimed at “making America great again” with the unspoken subtext of punishing China in the process. On the face of it, that might appeal to his core voter base. In practice, it would of course be a spectacular own goal, inflicting damage on the American people by pushing up the prices of just about every consumer product (although he’s hardly going to come out and call it what it is – a “60% patriotism tax”).

The knock-on effect could be huge. Toy companies would have to frantically scramble to reshore production, or at least move it to new countries – although that would have its own challenges. And to make matters worse, Trump is suggesting a blanket 10% tariff on all imports – so nowhere across the world is safe from tariffs apart from domestic US production (I bet those few US toy companies with a domestic manufacturing base are practically salivating at the thought…).

The likely upshot would be that US toy prices would soar in the short term, and that in turn could heavily impact sales volumes. Chinese factories would either find themselves with massive over-capacity, or with not enough orders to stay operational. And historically, if the US toy market catches a cold, the whole world ends up getting it too.

Of course, there is no guarantee that Trump will win – although reports increasingly suggest it is at very least plausible (which, incidentally, to the rest of the world seems beyond insane). And even if he does win, maybe this is just bluster aimed at winning votes of people who naively think this would benefit them. Perhaps it is simply a threat or a negotiating tactic with China and will never be enacted – very much Trump’s modus operandi. Nevertheless, another trade war between the US and China really isn’t something that anyone across the globe should be relishing. We reported earlier this week that Lego will begin work on its new US manufacturing site in Virginia later this year, with an expectation of being fully operational in 2027. There may be a few other toy companies running feasibility studies to see if they could follow suit if Trump really does do the unthinkable and win (heaven forbid).

Back here in the UK, I was sad to report that Barry Harding passed away recently. Barry had a long and successful sales career in the toy market, making many friends along the way – as the warm comments under my LinkedIn post attest. He was a consummate professional, always a pleasure to speak to – although he retired in 2018, I gather he kept in touch with many people from the toy community, and I am sure many are planning to attend his funeral. Our condolences to his family and all those who knew him.

It’s only five weeks until Easter, so we should get a decent gauge by then of how the early part of the year is shaping up. In the meantime, the UK toy community is waiting for the first wave of the new Entertainer toy sections in Tesco to open, to get a sense of how they will differ from previous Tesco toy aisles. And we’re all waiting for the election to be called to see what changes that may bring. I feel like a character in a Samuel Beckett play…just a bit more cheerful and (cautiously) optimistic that this year is going to turn out fine, as long as the voting public in both the UK & US does the right thing.