Store closures up 25% on 2019

The Centre for Retail Research has found that nearly 14,000 stores have permanently shuttered in 2020. 

Permanent store closures are up +24.8% on the same period last year, according to the Centre for Retail Research, which has also found that non-food retailers have so far lost around £9b in sales.

The news comes as analysis by the consultancy Altus Group indicates retail space may ultimately have to be repurposed in order for landlords to keep up with rent payments. According to the research, 38% of executives have already been switching their retail properties to other uses, while a further 57% were considering doing the same. A shift to mixed-use properties is a possibility for many retailers, which Altus says will probably offer a ‘community type focus’.

Professor Joshua Bamfield, a director at the Centre for Retail Research, believes at least 12.5m m2 of a total 125m m2 of retail floorspace will have to be altered. “There is no alternative to repurposing,” he said. “As much as 10% of retail floor space might need to be repurposed in the short to medium term, but could be much higher in major cities eventually.”

A combination of lockdowns, lower consumer footfall and a dramatic shift to online shopping have hit the high-street hard, and there are fears a second national lockdown could spell major trouble for those retailers that managed to weather the first. The Covid-19 pandemic has seen shoppers take to the internet like never before, resulting in a 40-50% growth in online shopping, according to IMRG, the industry body for online retailers. Even before the pandemic, in the first couple of months of 2020, online sales were reportedly up 5% compared to the same time last year. A spokesperson for the IMRG has warned that the retail industry can expect an online shopping increase of around 30% during the Christmas shopping season, and says that if stores are once again forced to shutter this may soar to 50%.

The challenges facing retail tenants and landlords have also impacted workers, with some 125,000 job losses in the retail industry so far this year, and more likely still to come.

Business rate payments were paused this year, easing some financial pressures on struggling businesses, but Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s latest announcement didn’t see this pause extended. Instead, he urged business to focus only on ‘viable’ new jobs, and revealed a new top-up scheme for workers unable to carry out their roles due to the latest lockdown restrictions.

Toymaster cancels September show

Dates for the 2021 Toymaster show have been confirmed. 

Toymaster logoSuppliers and Toymaster members have received an email, officially announcing the cancellation of the Toymaster show, which was due to take place from 2nd-4th September.

The event had already been postponed from its usual May timing, with government restrictions on gatherings now putting paid to the buying group’s plans to hold a later show. Despite support for the event, Toymaster has taken the decision to cancel the 2020 show, and focus on the 2021 May event instead, currently slated for 18th-20th May.

In an email to suppliers, MD Ian Edmunds said: “Due to the continuing need for social distancing, government restrictions on the number of people allowed to meet up, and ever conscious of the safety of attendees, the decision has been taken to cancel this September’s event.”

Suppliers are being given the option of a full refund, or booking for the 2021 show and carrying the money forward.

Kind + Jugend 2020 cancelled due to coronavirus concerns

Organiser Koelnmesse has announced the cancellation of all its trade fairs due to run before the end of October, including Kind + Jugend.  

Kind + Jugend cancelledFollowing in the footsteps of a number of other trade events, Koelnmesse has announced the cancellation of all its 2020 trade fairs due to take place before the end of October. This means that Kind + Jugend, the international trade fair for children, toddler and baby equipment, has been cancelled.

The international trade fair organiser has worked hard to allay the concerns of exhibitors and visitors, but notes that, ultimately, restarting the Cologne trade fair scene isn’t possible without their participation and full support. A statement on its website says: “We take seriously the difficult situation of our customers – and their concern for the health of their employees. However, we remain firmly convinced that, if all parties involved behave prudently, trade fairs can be held safely and successfully under new circumstances and subject to appropriate conditions. As event professionals, we see ourselves in a position to create framework conditions suitable to trade fairs, even in times such as these.”

The statement goes on to list a raft of reasons why trade fairs should be allowed to recommence, including the role they will play in helping businesses get back on their feet and their professional nature, which Koelnmesse notes is different from sporting events or ‘funfairs’.  The trade fair organiser is aiming to restart its own events from November.

Kind + Jugend 2020, which was due to take place 17th-20th September, is slated to return in 2021, 16th-19th September.

Let’s play Twister, let’s play Risk…. it’s the Friday Blog!

Games are back in the news this week, and not just because they’re still selling incredibly well. No, this time it’s because the government has turned to heritage gaming for inspiration on how to defeat coronavirus. Rather than complex strategising and scenario planning long into the night, it appears that our illustrious unelected leader, super spore caster Dom, and his mate Boris Johnson have been holding their own Hasbro Games Night at Number 10 instead. That would certainly explain the photo on the front of last week’s Sunday Mail – Johnson wasn’t doing press-ups, he was playing Twister (beer belly: red, green, yellow and blue). Their game-playing shenanigans have also given rise to the UK’s new virus response strategy – now officially referred to in Parliament by its no-longer secret code name, Whack-a-Mole. If Hasbro isn’t working on a special limited edition ‘2020 coronavirus edition’ of the original game as we speak, I would be truly amazed. Rumour has it the pair also played obscure board game ‘Escape from New York’, but adapted it for the modern era by renaming it ‘Escape from Leicester.’ Maybe other government policies will be based on D&B’s Games Night in future – instead of pay rises, maybe all NHS staff could be given a game of Operation instead? And let’s just hope that no one gives them a copy of Risk or who knows where we’ll end up?

Back in the real world, the virus continue to play havoc with our old routines – both Autumn Fair and Comic Con have officially been cancelled this week, as organisers grapple with the realities of putting on trade and consumer shows in the current climate. I’m sure it is technically feasible with an awful lot of planning and a raft of safety measures, but as one sanguine show organiser said to me recently: “Just because you can do something, doesn’t mean you should.” Indeed.

Some may even feel that sentiment could apply to the re-opening of pubs, bars, restaurants and other businesses this weekend, especially after recent developments in the USA. But looking at the move more optimistically, it will hopefully bring even more people back out into towns and cities, giving an additional boost to retailers. From what I am hearing, re-opening has generally gone pretty well – value sales shot up in the first week, and while that trend hasn’t been sustained in week two, some indies have told me that they’ve seen footfall pick up a bit this week, so maybe consumers have been favouring local High Streets over bigger destinations? In the first week, I understand that all supercategories were in growth for the first time since lockdown, even collectibles – anecdotally, it seems that kids are keen to spend the pocket money they’ve been saving up for the past 100 days.

However, despite the fact that the toy market continues to perform solidly, it is also inescapable that the wider retail channel and other parts of the UK economy are in for a pretty rough ride. The past couple of weeks has seen host of redundancies and store closures being announced: last week, we reported that Very Group would be losing over 100 people from its head office team, while this week saw John Lewis chairman Sharon Lewis warn of the impending closure of an unspecified number of stores, together with one London office. Details of which stores are for the chop will be revealed in July, at which point we’ll get an idea of how many job losses will follow. We already know the answer to that question at Harrods, where 700 roles – 1 in 7 of the workforce – will be disappearing. Overall, over 12,000 jobs in the retail and aviation industries were lost in just two days this week – incredibly sad and if this trend continues after the furlough scheme ends, it will surely curtail the speed and strength of economic recovery.

Thankfully, not all UK retailers are in the doldrums – far from it in fact. B&M saw its revenue rise by over 33% in its first quarter, while sales at Argos rose by over 10% over the same period, aided by a 78% rise in home deliveries, with toys cited as one of the key category drivers. Given how well toy sales have fared in general, we can but hope that this will restrict the number of job losses in our own market. However, there is a hard truth here: the government’s furlough scheme was incredibly generous and has undoubtedly saved many companies from going under in the short term. But it didn’t differentiate between businesses which have a long-term future and those which, frankly, don’t. I understand why means testing the furlough scheme would have been physically impossible given the time frame, but it did mean that millions of pounds were spent propping up zombie businesses, merely delaying the inevitable (we can see that in our own little corner of the media world…). Ultimately, the fallout from the pandemic is likely to result in the mother of all zombie business clear-outs – but I genuinely believe that we don’t actually have that many of those left in the toy market anymore, so we may yet escape relatively unscathed compared to many other sectors. Let us hope that proves to be the case.

One person whose current role has come to an end is Groupon trading director David Ripley, who left the business earlier this week. David will be in the market for a new challenge from 1st October and has told me that he would love for that to be in toys. However, in the meantime, he is keen to use his garden leave productively to support toy-related charities or not for profit toy organisations over the next three months, giving something back to the industry he has been a part of for so long. He can be reached at DavidJMRipley@Gmail.com or on 07738 999210 if you have a project or idea you’d like him to consider.

Before I go, if you’re looking for some uplifting reading for the weekend, may I recommend the special July ‘ 2020 reboot’ issue of Toy World? The physical copy is now arriving through letterboxes, but you can read the digital edition here. On so many levels, this strange and unpredictable year starts now, and this edition fires the starting gun on the all-important second half of the year, celebrating the fresh start that awaits the toy community. Enjoy!

For now, we’re all starting to get our heads around what post-lockdown life looks like in the short term. One picture which has been doing the rounds on social media this week caught my eye: is this what next year’s Toy Fairs might look like? If so, I for one can’t wait…

Friday blog bears

Virtual forum to replace Autumn Fair this September

This year’s physical Autumn Fair has been cancelled due to coronavirus. 

Autumn Fair organiser to hold virtual forumHyve Group has announced that a virtual forum will replace this year’s Autumn Fair, which was due to take place on 6th-9th September.

As exclusively revealed by Toy World, the physical event has been cancelled for 2020 due to concerns surrounding the ongoing coronavirus crisis. Timed at the beginning of September, the event is a crucial shopping destination for buyers to prepare for the Golden Quarter, retail’s busiest and most profitable time of year in the lead up to Christmas and New Year. To fill the void, Hyve Group is planning a virtual forum for September. Open to all usual attendees and exhibitors, exclusive seminar content will be available alongside practical advice designed to educate and inform participants.

More information on the virtual forum will be available on the website in due course.

“We have been listening to both our exhibitors and visitors, and the feedback from the market has been incredibly supportive of Autumn Fair. We’re excited to have the opportunity to take a fresh approach and launch a virtual forum this September.” says Jessica Dawnay, event director – Spring & Autumn Fair. “We are also looking forward to when the industry can meet again in person and will focus all efforts and resources on helping the industry bounce back in 2021, both at Spring Fair in February 2021, and Autumn Fair taking place 5th-8th September 2021.”

Toy World reported on Wednesday that Hyve Group has begun receiving its first insurance pay-outs relating to cancelled events. Dialogue is also underway with exhibitors, with a view to rolling bookings over to either the Spring or Autumn Fair events in 2021. Spring Fair is set to take place 7th-11th February 2021, while Autumn Fair returns 5th-8th September 2021.